Market Commentary  02/14/20 3:26:42 PM Printer Friendly VersionPrinter Friendly Version

Friday February 14, 2020

Corn futures closed a couple of cents lower again today as the friendly news continues to be lacking. The lack of U.S. corn export demand continues to overhang the market. China has recently been buying Ukraine corn, which is seen as even more doubt over the hope that China buys U.S. corn as part of the Phase 1 trade deal. The crop report failed to create any excitement for prices with ending stocks kept unchanged at 1.892 Bln. bu. The USDA Ag Outlook Forum will be held late next week. The USDA will talk about their budgetary balance sheet for 20/21 with likely many questions being asked about the potential of increased Chinese demand from the U.S. The USDA released an updated baseline projection today with corn acres for 2020 still estimated at 94.5 Mln. acres. They are using a yield of 178.5 bpa, which would put ending stocks at 2.754 Bln. bu. While these are preliminary numbers, it does serve as a reminder that prices will face a strong uphill climb if the weather cooperates. The outside markets were mixed today as the coronavirus fears keep those markets choppy. There is no trade on Sunday night or during the day on Monday. Virus news should set the tone for the grain trade when the long weekend ends on Monday night. March corn lost 5 ¾ cents for the week.

Soybeans closed 2 to 3 cents lower today as the news was quiet heading into the long weekend. March beans broke its streak today of nine straight higher sessions. The total gain over those nine sessions was roughly 24 cents, so it was not enough to engage the producer in any big way. The updated USDA baseline projections today continued to show bean acres for 2020 at 84 Mln. acres. Using a yield of 50.5 bpa, they had ending stocks at 518 Mln. bu. The USDA did lower ending stocks this week for 19/20 by 50 Mln. bu. to 425 Mln. bu. this was due to a like increase in bean exports. The USDA raised total Chinese bean imports for this year by 3 MMTs to 88 MMTs. A big crop is coming in South America with both Brazil and Argentina crop estimates increasing. A better weather profile in Brazil is allowing harvest to move along more actively this week. Coronavirus news will be the main newsworthy item to watch over the weekend. March beans gained 11 ¾ cents for the week.

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