Market Commentary  01/17/19 3:31:09 PM Printer Friendly VersionPrinter Friendly Version

Afternoon Market Information Thursday, January 17, 2019


Corn futures ended the session firmer. Today’s move higher pushed the March contract through its 10 and 20-day moving averages. Resistance now stands at $3.84 ½, which is the recent high. A move above that level would likely trigger some buy stops and potentially ratchet the market higher. Today’s upward movement was attributed to rumors that new Asian business for U.S. corn may have been happening combined with a drier forecast for Brazil midday. Currently, the Brazilian soybean harvest is underway and the country's second, or 'safrinha,' corn crop will be planted right behind it. Therefore, traders will be keeping a close eye on anything that can slow the bean harvest and result in planting delays for the 2nd corn crop.


Soybean futures ended the session higher, despite a lack of export confirmations to China and the fact U.S./Chinese trade negotiations are on a break. A solid reason for the rally was hard to come by but there was talk that Sino Grain, which is China’s reserve buyer may have been asking for U.S. soybean export offers. In addition, the midday weather maps showed drier conditions for Brazil. Previously, forecasts were uncertain regarding upcoming moisture in South America. Private analysts continue to reduce Brazil’s soybean production number, with most estimates hovering around 117 MMT’s. Brazil's soybean harvest is progressing with Parana thought to be 10% done and Mato Grosso near 6% complete. Argentina needs to have their beans planted by now. Earlier in the week, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchanged estimated Argentina’s soybean farmers had finished planting 96.1% of the area expected to be sown with the crop. Although, reports are popping up that an increasing number of farmers in Argentina have given up soybean acres after several flooded replant attempts.
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